Sportsbook – How Accurately Do Sportsbooks Cover the Margin of Victory?

A sportsbook is a place or website where people can make wagers on sporting events. Usually, the wagers are placed on which team will win and how many points or goals they will score. Sometimes, bettors can even make bets on a specific player’s statistical performance. These bets are called futures and they typically have a long-term horizon measured in weeks or months.

In the United States, there are a number of different sportsbooks that offer a variety of betting options. Most of these are located in Nevada, although some also operate in Oregon, Montana and Delaware. Most of these books accept bets on a variety of sporting events, including baseball, basketball, football and boxing. In addition to these standard wagers, most sportsbooks offer odds on a variety of other events, such as futures and props.

To gain insight into how accurately the point spreads proposed by the sportsbooks capture the median margin of victory, the empirically measured CDF of the true margin of victory was evaluated for offsets of 1, 2, and 3 points from the actual median in each direction (Fig 1). The height of each bar in this figure represents the hypothetical expected profit that a unit bet would generate when wagering on the team with the higher probability of winning against the spread.

The findings suggest that the sportsbooks are able to capture 86% of the variability in the actual margin of victory with their proposed point spreads. This is a substantial improvement over the 50% error rate implied by seminal findings of Kuypers and Levitt.